ARV Calculator — Estimate After Repair Value from Comps

What Is ARV and Why Does It Matter?

After Repair Value (ARV) is the estimated market value of a property after all planned renovations are complete. It's the single most important number in any fix and flip analysis — and the number most likely to be wrong.

A 10% ARV error on a $260,000 property means $26,000 in phantom profit that evaporates at closing. Most investors who lose money on flips don't lose because of bad execution — they lose because their ARV was too optimistic from the start.

How to Calculate ARV from Comparable Sales

The most reliable method for estimating ARV is comparable sales analysis — examining recently sold properties (comps) similar to your subject property after renovation.

1. Find 3–5 recent comparable sales within 0.5–1 mile, sold in the past 3–6 months
2. Match key attributes: similar square footage (within 15–20%), bedroom count, and post-renovation condition
3. Calculate price per square foot for each comp and average the figures
4. Adjust for differences: +/- $3,000–$5,000 per bedroom, condition adjustments, lot size
5. Weight for recency: sales from last month are more reliable than 6-month-old data
6. Apply to your property: multiply adjusted $/sqft × your subject property's square footage

ARV vs. Appraised Value vs. Market Value

These three numbers are related but distinct:

• ARV is a forward-looking estimate — the projected value after renovation, before any sale
• Appraised value is a formal opinion by a licensed appraiser, often used by lenders
• Market value is what a buyer actually pays — which may differ from both estimates

For fix and flip analysis, conservative ARV estimation is critical. Many experienced investors deliberately underestimate ARV (using the lowest of their comp range) and overestimate renovation costs. This creates margin of safety that protects your profit when markets shift.

Common ARV Mistakes to Avoid

• Using active listings as comps — list price ≠ sale price. Only use closed sales.
• Ignoring days on market — a comp that sat for 90 days may have sold below its true value
• Comparing before-renovation to after-renovation — your ARV should compare to fully renovated comps, not current condition
• Ignoring concessions — seller credits at closing reduce the effective sale price. Adjust for these.
• Using stale comps in a moving market — in rapidly changing markets, 4-month-old data can be significantly off

Our ARV Estimator from Comps in the full calculator handles all of these automatically. Enter your comps, set your subject property's attributes, and get a conservative/mid/optimistic ARV range instantly.

How many comps do I need for ARV?

3 comps is the minimum for a reliable estimate. 5 comps gives you much stronger confidence. If you can't find 5 similar recent sales within 1 mile, expand your search radius to 2 miles or extend to 12 months — then weight the closer/more recent ones higher.

Can I use Zillow or Redfin for ARV estimates?

Zillow's Zestimate and Redfin's estimate are useful starting points but shouldn't be your primary ARV source. They're automated valuations with known inaccuracies — especially on properties that have been recently renovated or are in non-standard condition. Use MLS data (through an agent) or public county records for closed sales as your comp source.